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This is not merely an exercise in calculating full-season points. That information is pretty easy to find, either on this website or elsewhere on the internet. Rather, knowing that drivers race differently and crew chiefs strategize differently when working under different championship formats, my goal here is to dig deeper and try to figure out who would have most likely been the full-season champion had the chase/playoff system never been implemented.

Please post in the comments which years you agree and disagree with, or feel free to make your own complete list.

2004 --- Actual: Kurt Busch --- Full-Season: Jimmie Johnson

Jeff Gordon earned the most points in 2004 (by a slim margin of 47 over Jimmie Johnson), but even in its first year, Jimmie Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus were quick to figure out how the new system worked. Apparently going into experimental mode shortly before the first chase began, Johnson endured three consecutive engine failures at Indianapolis, Watkins Glen, and Michigan. Without the playoff system, their strategy would have no doubt been different, and I think Johnson would have most likely won the 2004 championship.

2005 --- Actual: Tony Stewart --- Full-Season: Tony Stewart

Tony Stewart clearly had the best season out of anyone in 2005. He won the title under the chase format, but he would have easily won it under the full-season format as well. In 2005, no one was even close to him under either format. Greg Biffle ranked second under either format, but there's no reason to think he would have been able to beat Tony Stewart if there was no chase.

2006 --- Actual: Jimmie Johnson --- Full-Season: Jimmie Johnson (or Matt Kenseth)

This season is more complicated to try to figure out. For the full season, Johnson scored a mere 4 points more than Matt Kenseth. For sure, one of those two drivers would have won the full-season championship, but which one? Knowing Kenseth probably did everything he could do and still came up a little short, I am inclined to give the nod to Johnson. Had it been a closer battle using full-season points, I think he would have pushed harder to score a better finish at Homestead if the championship depended on it.

2007 --- Actual: Jimmie Johnson --- Full-Season: Jeff Gordon

Even with Johnson's 4 straight wins near the end of the season, Jeff Gordon would have already built up such a significant point lead under a full-season format that I don't think there is anything Johnson could have done differently to catch Gordon. And without the chase format, knowing he was virtually out of championship contention with a few races to go anyway, it's possible Johnson wouldn't have pushed quite as hard and wouldn't have won 4 races in a row.

2008 --- Actual: Jimmie Johnson --- Full-Season: Jimmie Johnson

As much as I would like to give this one to Carl Edwards, who did score the highest number of full-season points, I just don't think it would have turned out that way. In the full season, Edwards scored 16 more points than Johnson. But at Homestead, Johnson finished 15th while Edwards won because Johnson only had to finish 36th or better anyway. If he had to score a top-10 to win the championship, I think he would have been able to do that.

2009 --- Actual: Jimmie Johnson --- Full-Season: Tony Stewart

For the third time in four years, a full-season point format would have produced a closer championship battle than what we got with the chase. Johnson, Stewart, and Gordon would have all entered Homestead with a legitimate shot at the title under a full-season format. I don't know that any of the three drivers could have done anything differently throughout the season, as each only had a single DNF (all due to crashes). But here's the big difference: With 2 races to go, Tony Stewart was virtually out of contention in the chase. Under a full-season format, he would have had a championship lead of nearly 100 points over Johnson and Gordon. Considering all of that, I think Stewart would have raced completely differently at Phoenix and Homestead and done what he needed to do to win the championship.

2010 --- Actual: Jimmie Johnson --- Full-Season: Kevin Harvick

Harvick scored 285 more full-season points than Johnson. Even figuring that Johnson's team probably did some experimenting during the summer months when they had a string of poor finishes, I'm still not sure that would have been enough for Johnson to catch the very consistent Harvick, who led the standings for the majority of the regular season and only finished outside the top-15 four times all year.

2011 --- Actual: Tony Stewart --- Full-Season: Carl Edwards

It seems obvious to me that Carl Edwards would have finally won a championship in 2011 under a full-season format. Tony Stewart won the chase in a tiebreaker because he got hot at the right time and won half of the chase races, but no one could match Edwards' consistency throughout all of 2011. There would have been a tight battle for second, but using the new point system, Edwards scored 78 more full-season points than anyone else--a large margin that I don't think anyone could have cut into.

2012 --- Actual: Brad Keselowski --- Full-Season: Jimmie Johnson (or Brad Keselowski)

Without the chase, Keselowski would have entered Homestead just 8 points ahead of Johnson instead of 20 points ahead. But when Johnson had a rare mechanical failure near the end of the race, Keselowski virtually had the title locked up, and played it safe, finishing 15th. But under a full-season format, would it have been that close? Johnson had a relatively high 5 DNFs during the regular season, while Keselowski's only DNF all season was in the Daytona 500. Without the chase, it seems likely that Johnson would have raced differently--and if just 1 of those 5 DNFs was a top-5 finish instead, Johnson would have won the championship. This season is one of the tougher ones to figure out, but I feel like Johnson's team would have been a little more cautious and won the title under a full-season format.

2013 --- Actual: Jimmie Johnson --- Full-Season: Jimmie Johnson

Johnson won the chase and also scored 41 more full-season points than anyone, even with an engine failure DNF at Michigan shortly before the start of the chase. There's no reason to think anyone other than Johnson would have won the title under a full-season format.

2014 --- Actual: Kevin Harvick --- Full-Season: Joey Logano (or Jeff Gordon)

This is an interesting season to analyze. A full-season battle would have come down to Jeff Gordon and Joey Logano. Gordon did score 37 more full-season points than Logano. However, once he won 2 races and was securely in the new 16-driver chase, he had 3 DNFs that may not all have occurred otherwise. Gordon, meanwhile, had no DNFs all season and probably wouldn't have earned any more points under a full-season format. Both drivers almost certainly would have used different strategy in the closing laps at Homestead as well. All things considered, I think Logano would have been most likely to come out on top, but it would have been a tight battle between Logano and Gordon. (As a side note, it would have been very interesting to see this battle between the young Joey Logano and the veteran Jeff Gordon, but because of the elimination chase format, we were deprived of that opportunity.)

2015 --- Actual: Kyle Busch --- Full-Season: Joey Logano (or Kevin Harvick)

This is perhaps the most difficult season of all to analyze. This full-season battle would have been between Joey Logano and Kevin Harvick. Just looking at full-season points, Harvick beat Logano by 21 points. But without the elimination chase format, multiple things would have likely played out differently. Kevin Harvick faced a must-win scenario at Dover, and he dominated and won. But would he have done that under a full-season point format? Logano would have had a slim point lead over Harvick with 7 races to go. Would he have been so aggressive to win 3 races in a row--especially Kansas, where he and Matt Kenseth had contact prior to his win? And if that incident hadn't happened, Martinsville surely would have turned out better for Logano, although he may not have won those 3 races in a row. Might Logano have been less aggressive at Texas, where he faced a virtually must-win scenario but crashed out early? At the same time, Harvick's team might have opted for a more conservative strategy at Pocono, where he suffered his lone DNF with a rare engine failure. This one is very tough to call, but I think Logano had more things that might change in the positive direction than Harvick, so I am inclined to give the nod to Logano. (When I first wrote this, I initially gave this one to Harvick, but changed my mind upon further consideration.)

2016 --- Actual: Jimmie Johnson --- Full Season: Kevin Harvick

The full-season battle would have again been between Harvick and Logano. This time, though, it seems likely that Harvick would have come out on top. Even with several poor runs towards the end of the season, Harvick still scored 27 more full-season points than Logano. Under a full-season format, I don't think Logano could have done anything any differently to have had a chance to beat Harvick for the title.

2017 --- Actual: Martin Truex Jr. --- Full Season: Martin Truex Jr.

There's no doubt about this one--Truex was by far the driver to beat all year long. When your point lead under the new 40-to-1 system would have practically earned you the title with one race to go under the old Latford system, you know you've had a good year! (His full-season point lead was 162 over Kyle Busch heading into Homestead.) Truex led the series in virtually every category this year, and he would have easily won the championship under any reasonable point system.



--- How Many Championships? ---

Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson would have ended up tied with 5 championships each, leaving Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt keeping the record of 7 championships to themselves.

Tony Stewart would have still won 3, although not in all the same years that he actually won them, and Kevin Harvick also would have won 2 rather than the single championship that he has. And Martin Truex Jr. would still have his championship this season.

Non-champ Carl Edwards would have won a single championship while non-champ Joey Logano would have won two championships.

Brothers Kurt and Kyle Busch would have no championships between them, and Brad Keselowski would not have won a championship, either.